Galt&Taggart published Weekly Market Watch. According to the report, in Jul-22, exports increased by 40.3% y/y to a record high US$ 542.2mn, after a 27.9% y/y growth in previous month. Imports increased by 26.3% y/y to US$ 1.1bn in July (growth was 22.3% y/y in Jun-22). As a result, the trade deficit increased by 15.3% y/y to US$ 571.8mn, after a 18.5% y/y growth in June.
The top 5 exported commodities were cars (+136.1% y/y), copper (+20.4% y/y), ferro-alloys (+24.6% y/y), spirits (+94.9% y/y) and wine (+4.1% y/y), in Jul-22. A 9.7% of exports were directed to the EU (+89.1% y/y), 53.1% to the CIS (+46.7% y/y) and 37.2% to other countries (+24.3% y/y).
The top 5 imports were petroleum (+82.3% y/y), cars (+8.8% y/y), copper (+24.2% y/y), pharmaceuticals (+29.8% y/y) and telephones (+4.9% y/y) in Jul-22. Overall, in 7M22, trade deficit was up 33.5% y/y to US$ 4.0bn, as exports increased by 36.4% y/y to US$ 3.1bn, while imports were up by 34.8% y/y to US$ 7.1bn.
Money transfers increased by 46.8% y/y to US$ 306.0mn in Jul-22, according to NBG, after a 111.7% y/y growth in the previous month. From major remitting countries, money transfers increased from Russia (+150.7% y/y accounting for 32.9% of total, part of this funds related to migration), followed by Italy (+7.9% y/y, 11.8% of total), USA (+12.0% y/y, 9.3% of total), Israel (+3.8% y/y, 5.5% of total), Germany (+47.0% y/y, 4.8% of total) and Belarus (+13.4x y/y, 3.4% of total). Meanwhile, transfer continued to reduce from Greece (-7.1% y/y, 6.3% of total). Overall, in 7M22 remittances increased by 62.0% y/y to US$ 2.1bn.
Annual PPI for industrial goods retreated to 12.4% in Jul-22, after a 15.4% growth in previous month, according to Geostat. Price changes in mining (-15.5% y/y) and manufacturing (+17.0% y/y) contributed most to the overall index change in July.
On 17 August 2022, NBG intervened in the FX market and sold US$ 8.3mn out of offered US$ 20mn to limit GEL volatility. This was 2nd FX intervention on the sell side in 2022. Notably, the NBG is a net buyer of US$ 203.3mn year-to-date.
Unemployment rate reduced by 4.0ppts y/y and 1.3ppts q/q to 18.1% in 2Q22, amid strong economic growth. In 2Q22, out of employed persons hired labor increased by 4.4% y/y (68.3% of total), while self-employed persons (31.6% of total) were up by 5.1% y/y. Notably, labor force participation rate increased by 1.6ppts q/q to 51.5% in 2Q, but it still remains below pre-pandemic level.
Fixed income
Corporate Eurobonds: Bank of Georgia Group Eurobonds (GEBGG) closed at 4.61% yield, trading at 101.27 (-0.15% w/w). Georgia Capital Eurobonds (GEOCAP) were trading at 94.29 (-0.08% w/w), yielding 10.21%.
Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at 84.38 (-0.25% w/w), yielding 7.35%.
Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 86.98 (-0.16% w/w) at 6.82% yield to maturity.
Equities
Bank of Georgia Group (BGEO LN)shares closed at GBP 20.65/share (+14.72% w/w and +43.80% m/m). More than 570k shares traded in the range of GBP 17.90 - 20.70/share. Average daily traded volume was 79k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 1.16% of its capitalization.
TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 17.90/share (+8.48% w/w and +52.99% m/m). More than 542k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 16.22 - 18.20/share. Average daily traded volume was 47k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 0.98% of its capitalization.
Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 6.75/share (+2.27% w/w and +10.47% m/m). More than 661k shares traded in the range of GBP 6.54- 6.78/share. Average daily traded volume was 54k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 1.42% of its capitalization.
