Mr. Coulton explained that Leisure and transport (L&T) industries are labour-intensive and are still afflicted by social distancing. US employment is still 6.1% below pre-pandemic levels (compared to GDP which is 2.4% lower), while L&T accounts for more than one-third of furloughed workers in the EU. So we tried to analyze how to close this gap and in this context Fitch believes that it is still reasonable to assume that the health crisis will ease by mid-year, allowing social contact to start to recover even though vaccine rollout has gained momentum, particularly in the UK and US. The eurozone has had a slower start but the programme should accelerate in 2Q21. But - Fitch warns that - immunisation delays or problems remain the key downside risk to the forecast.
Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, Fitch Ratings
