TBC Capital Published An Update From The Chief Economist. According to the report, July growth print came in at 5.5%, - somewhat below what the latest 7.2% or higher baseline for the full year 2023 would imply. For now, lower commodity prices are the major driver towards normalization.
“As for the migration impact, based on our estimates, the current year contribution should be still positive, though only marginally compared with 2022. At the same time, conventional tourism continues to rebound notably, increasing by a 63% YoY in USD terms when excluding visitors from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, with the largest contributions of Turkey and the EU.
Based on the outlook for major sources of inflows, imports of goods and services, credit, and the fiscal stance, we estimate the 2023 growth baseline at around 7%, followed by continuous normalization in 2024, - breakdown of the growth drivers to be presented in our forthcoming publications”, - the document reads.
